India optimistic about Obama but doubts remain

The first African-American president of the United States, Barack Obama, is being widely hailed as a harbinger of change and, perhaps,
not without reason.
Even before he was sworn in as the 44th US president around 11.30am (local time) on Tuesday, Obama had come to signify hope and change for the better for millions cutting across country, race and religious divides.

India is no exception as Obama's elevation to power has been largely met with optimism. The only sore note, if one can call it that, has been the new president's inclination to draw a link between the situation on Pak-Afghan border and the J&K dispute between India and Pakistan which many in the West believe can lead to a flare-up on Pakistan's eastern border.

However, the good news for India is that Obama has already declared that the war on terror during his regime is going to focus on Afghanistan-Pakistan and not Iraq. This clearly authenticates India's stand that it is important to sort out these two countries to root out terrorism.
Obama's predecessor had been pilloried for the US follies in launching an all out war on Iraq and Obama's decision to withdraw troops from that country has been greeted well by the world community. In that sense, Obama has already started to make a difference.

India, of course, would want to ward off any attempt by the Obama administration to force a resolution of the J&K dispute on the pretext of ensuring more cooperation from Pakistan in the war against terror. However, Obama clearly understands that India looks upon J&K as a bilateral dispute, with the world community having little or no role in it, and is unlikely to disturb the balance.

Another likely bone of contention between India and the US could be the Democrats' insistence on India signing the CTBT and NPT. However, India's stand on both the issues is so clearly spelled out that any attempt to force India could lead to an ugly situation which Washington may want to avoid.

One of the first major challenges to confront Obama would be the tottering US economy and he has already outlined it as his main priority area. Any move to inject fresh life into the economy can only be good news not just for India but also the entire world as no other country has a more profound influence on the world economy.
More than 90% of India's $50 billion IT exports goes to the US and a thriving US economy is almost imperative for India. As for his remarks on outsourcing in the past, that he wants to save American jobs, Indians are hopeful that as in the past it would not translate into any action that would impede US-India business relations.

China's relations with the US are also likely to have a bearing on India-US strategic ties as manifested in last year's nuclear deal between the two countries. It was fairly obvious during the last phase of Bush's tenure that Washington was following a policy of containment vis-a-vis China even though Bush himself maintained that relations between the two countries strengthened in the past few years. So far, Obama has kept his cards close to his chest as far as China is concerned.
Secretary of state-designate Hillary Clinton, of course, has said that Washington wants positive and cooperative relationship with China. She, however, has also warned that relations would not be "one-way effort" and that "much of what we will do depends on the choices China makes about its future at home and abroad".

Obama is also likely to deviate from his predecessor's stand by trying to engage Iran. However, any major change in US policy, especially if Iran continues with its plan to enrich uranium, is not on the cards. He has also not ruled out military options against Iran which might bring him into a conflict with Europe.

Obama has already announced that he would have Guantanamo Bay shut down as a priority. However, it remains to be seen how the decision is implemented because the authorities have not yet figured out what to do with the inmates. For example, the 15 Uighur separatists lodged in the prison have nowhere to go because most countries have refused to take them.

Obama is also likely to emerge as the new world leader as far as climate change is concerned. He has already announced his intention to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 80% and an investment of $150 billion in new energy-saving techniques. However, his real test will come in December in Copenhagen when talks are held on replacement for Kyoto protocol.
Source:The Times of India